Thursday, December 25, 2008

World Commodity Markets

New York Market
Market hours (local time)
8:20 AM - 1:30 PM.
New York Futures Division gold futures and options are two ways of trading gold in New York. They provide an important alternative to traditional means of investing in gold such as bullion, coins, and mining stocks.
New York ACCESS MARKET®
Market hours (local time)
2:00 PM - 8:00 AM Mon-Thu7:00 PM - 8:00 AM Sun.
After-hours futures trading is conducted via the NYMEX ACCESS electronic trading system beginning at 2:00 PM on Mondays through Thursdays and concluding at 8:00 AM the following day. On Sunday, the electronic session begins at 7:00 PM. All times are New York time.
London
Market hours (local time)
8:30 AM - 4:00 PM, with Fixing at 10:30 AM and 3:00 PM.
The metal prices fixed twice a day here, known as London Fixes, are the guidepost for the official gold trading around the world.
Zurich
Market hours (local time)
8:00 AM - 5:00 PM.
The core is the mutual settlement(gold pool) of the three biggest banks in Switzerland.
Hong Kong
Market hours (local time)
8:30 AM - 12:30 PM2:30 PM - 5:30 PM.
Hong Kong is center of gold trading in the Far East and the Southeastern Asia.
Sydney
Market hours (local time)
9:00 AM - 3:00 PM.
Australia's geographical location is a natural place to maintain the continuity of the spot gold market after New York traders go home and before the Asian traders wake up. Sydney opens up shortly after the NY market closes and overlaps the Hong Kong market.

Sunday, December 21, 2008

Currency Correlation Chart

Currency Correlations


Each cell in the following tables contains the correlation coefficient for
two currency pairs (currency correlations) which are named in
the corresponding fields of the upper and left-hand panel.


Correlation coefficient measures how closely two currency pairs move
together. If both pairs move up and down in perfect unison then
their correlation coefficient is +1. If the movement of one
pair doesn't tell anything about the movement of the other pair
then there is a zero correlation between these pairs. If two
pairs move in exactly opposite directions then their
correlation coefficient is -1. Correlations are also divided
into four groups in accordance with their strength. For easy viewing all
correlations in the following table are coloured to show their strength, as is
noted below:



  1. Weak (Green): the absolute value of the correlation
    coefficient doesn't exceed 0,3 (i.e. it can be anything from -0,3 to +0,3).

  2. Medium (Yellow): the absolute value of the coefficient is
    greater than 0,3 but less than 0,5.

  3. Strong (Orange): the absolute value of the coefficient is
    bigger than 0,5 but smaller than 0,8.

  4. High (Red): the absolute value of the correlation
    coefficient is equal to or greater than 0,8.


The correlation coefficients are calculated using the daily closing prices
seen over the last 40 trading days (shorter-term) and the last 120 trading days
(longer term). These two periods
have
been chosen from among two hundred possible correlation periods

based on how well their correlation coefficients correspond with the daily price
fluctuations
. As you can see from

correlation simulator
(Please note: This calculator requires that you have
Flash installed and Javascript enabled in your browser) the actual correlation
will usually diverge stronger from the target value when it is calculated for
shorter time periods. This makes it important to check the short-term
correlations against the longer-term correlations, which is done in the REL
table below. The REL (from "reliability") table compares the short-term and the
long-term correlations and shows the average of both coefficients when they stay
close for both time periods. It is believed that if the short-term and the
long-term correlation coefficients agree, the correlation is more reliable -
more likely to persist in the near future. You can check how
the short-term and the long-term daily correlations change over time for the
most commonly traded currency pairs at the

trailing correlation page
(Please note: The size of this page is 1,3 Mbs and
it requires that you have Flash installed and Javascript enabled in your
browser).


Correlation can also be defined as the degree of similarity
(direct similarity when correlation is positive/inverse similarity when
correlation is negative) that you can expect to exist between technical
chart patterns
(e.g.
trendlines,
price
patterns,


candlesticks
and

Elliott waves
) visible on any two currency pairs' charts. For example, you
can expect to see almost exact mirror image of the trendline
appearing on the daily EUR/USD chart when you look at the same time-scale chart
of USD/CHF (because the negative correlation of these pairs is so high). Daily
correlation coefficients shown here, therefore, measure the correspondence
between intermediate (last 120 days) and the minor (last 40 days) chart patterns
visible on the daily charts of the currency pairs for which
they are calculated. This information will be most useful for position traders
(keeping the positions open from one day to a few days) who rely primarily on
the daily chart studies. If you wish to calculate correlations for other time
periods you can do so in Excel, as is described at the bottom of this page.


Currency Correlations Table



currency correlations table

Wednesday, December 17, 2008

Active Currency

During the 24 hours period currency pairs in Forex market experience several hours, when the volume of trades is the highest and so is the pip movement. Below are Forex market sessions and examples of the most active currency pairs :

London/ New York sessions : EUR/USD USD/CHF GBP/

Tokyo/Sydney sessions : EUR/JPYAUD/USDUSD/JPY AUD/

Sydney session : AUD/USDEUR/

During the week the most active Forex trading days are: Tuesday, Wednesday and Thursday. Sundays (opening) and Mondays are days when traders are mostly watching and analyzing the market and predict further price moves. Fridays are traded approximately till noon, after that all actions slow down and almost freeze before the actual market closing at 5 pm EST.

Relative Strength Analysis

Introduction
Over time, technical analysts have developed a wide range of methods and tools to help them in their work. These include trend lines, support and resistance levels, chart formations and mathematical indicators such as moving averages, MACD and stochastics. Other studies include Fibonacci projections, Elliot waves and Japanese candlesticks.
For a currency trader, it is important to understand that, by and large, these methods and tools were developed for use in the stock market. The principal point to note here is that a stock is a financial instrument representing the price of a single underlying entity, and a change in a stock’s price reflects a change in the perceived value of the underlying entity. The same applies to commodities, bonds and most other types of investments. However, currencies are different. A currency rate represents the value of one currency in relation to another. As a result, a change in a currency rate can reflect a change in one, the other or both of the underlying currencies. This presents currency traders with an opportunity to add a powerful filtering method, known as relative-strength analysis, to their existing technical-analysis arsenal.
Relative Strength Analysis
To determine the relative strength of a currency, it is necessary to detect whether the currency is bullish or bearish against a basket of other currencies. If we discover that the currency is predominantly bullish against a basket of other currencies, we will have gained valuable knowledge about current market sentiment towards that currency. As speculators, we can apply this knowledge towards buying or selling the currency against any other individual currency.
How to Select Trades Using Relative-Strength Analysis
Let’s say you have done a relative-strength analysis on a basket of currencies and you have found that the GBP is rising in value with the greatest momentum. What can you do with this information? Clearly, if you are a trend follower, you will be looking to buy the GBP against another currency. But which one? To determine the ideal match, go back to your analysis and find out which currency among the basket of currencies is falling with the greatest momentum. Let’s say it is the JPY. Based on this relative-strength analysis, the trade with the highest potential to succeed would be a long GBPJPY. In going long the GBPJPY, you would be buying the GBP, which is the currency showing the most strength, and selling the JPY, which is the currency showing the most weakness. Please read more on trading model page.

Currency Co-relation

Some currencies tend to move in the same direction, some — in opposite. This is a powerful knowledge for those who trade more than one currency pair. It helps to hedge, diversify or double profitable positions.

Statistically measured by performance, currency pairs are given so called "correlation coefficients" from +1 to -1.
A correlation of +1 means two currency pairs will move in the same direction 100% of the time. A correlation of -1 means they will move in the opposite direction 100% of the time. A correlation of zero means no relation between currency pairs exists. Information about current correlation coefficients can be found here:
Currency Correlations Table. [On the page click on FxCorrelations (table version)].

The example of strong positive correlation between two currency pairs is: GBP/USD and EUR/USD. They have a correlation coefficient of over +0.90, which means that when EUR/USD goes up, GBP/USD also goes up.

A well known sample of two opposite moving currency pairs is EUR/USD and USD/CHF, they have very high coefficient of over -0.90, which means that they move inversely almost 100% of the time!
Examples of same direction moving currency pairs are:
EUR/USD and GBP/USD
EUR/USD and NZD/USD
USD/CHF and USD/JPY
AUD/USD and GBP/USD
AUD/USD and EUR/USD

Inversely moving pairs are:
EUR/USD and USD/CHF
GBP/USD and USD/JPY
GBP/USD and USD/CHF
AUD/USD and USD/CAD
AUD/USD and USD/JPY
How a trader can use this information?

  • A very simple use is avoiding trades that cancel each other. For instance, knowing that EUR/USD and USD/CHF move inversely near-perfectly, there would be no point to go short on both positions as they eventually cancel each other (loss + profit).
  • However, there is a strategy of hedging one currency pair with another. Lets' take the same pairs: EUR/USD and USD/CHF. For example, a trader has opened long positions on both currency pairs. Since they move in opposite directions, if EUR/USD is making some losses, the other pair will go in profit. Hence, the total loss will not be as bad as if it would be without the second "backup trade". On the other hand, profits here are not large either.
  • When confident, a trader may double position size by placing same orders on parallel (moving in the same direction) currency pairs.
  • Another option would be to diversify risks in trade. For instance, AUD/USD and EUR/USD pairs have the correlation coefficient of about +0.70 which means that pairs are moving mostly in the same direction but not as perfect (which is what we need here). If we decide that USD is going to weaken, for example, we will go long and place half of buy order on AUD/USD currency pair, and half on EUR/USD. Splitting the orders will preserve trader's positions from sudden losing rallies (sudden "jumps" in price); and as these currencies move not 100% identical a trader will have some time to react adequately. Different monetary policies of different countries' banks also create an impact: when one currency will be less affected than the other and therefore will move slower.